“Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate”, is the headline in a PerthNow article, reported by Miranda Devine (October 4, 2015). A footnote says that Dr David Evans “has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.”
The reporter concludes that the mathematical discovery made by the Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate and this on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.
Evens is a former climate model exponent working for the Australian government’s Greenhouse Office. Qualified with half-a-dozen degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans determined that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly. He fixed certain errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than is today accepted.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) it would appear, has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.
“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”.
Dr Evans says his discovery “ought to change the world”, adding, “but the political obstacles are massive.”
His discovery explains why none of the climate models used by the IPCC reflect the actual evidence gleaned by the recorded temperatures and the IPCC findings failed to predict the pause in global warming which has been going on for 18 years to date.
“The model architecture was wrong,” he states. “Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.”
There is another problem with the current climate model, shown by the anomaly in predictions of climate scientists since the 1990s where it was foretold that changes in temperature would follow changes in carbon dioxide, yet the records over the past half million years show that is not the case. His new and improved climate model shows that CO2 is not the culprit in recent global warming, so what is?
Dr Evans has a theory that solar activity, or “albedo modulation”, the waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is the likely cause of global warming. He forecasts that global temperatures, which have flattened out, will begin to cool beginning 2017 and 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3C in the 2020s.
If Dr Evans is correct, then he has proven the theory on the effects of carbon dioxide wrong and this has hit climate alarmism. Also, it brings forward an explanation as to why the doomsday predictions of climate scientists aren’t reflected in the actual temperatures.
For original article see: australianclimatemadness.com
