One of Hong Kong’s Occupy movement’s leading lights is Joshua Wong Chi-fung who had his 18th birthday, yesterday – October 13, 2014 – which also marked the 16th day of the protest. Vonnie Boston* took him a couple well-wishing gifts and reports: “…he leapt as lightly as a cat over the highway barrier to meet me and thank me for my small gift and card of congratulations.
‘We will not give up,’ he stated with intense conviction and looking not at all fatigued by the many long hours he and his supporters have put in.
“He also declared he was very aware and mindful of the fear on everyone’s mind that their non-violence position could well be overturned by external action but that was the last thing he wanted. ‘Yes, yes we know!’ he said, like someone who has been told so many times and is more than aware of the huge responsibility he and all the protesters have to maintain the compassion, care and non-violent message that has gained them so much respect world-wide.
“The gift included a copy of the article I wrote: (When Quantum Physics Meets Daoism in Hong Kong and raises another umbrella over the whole**) as posted on the Humanist Pressenza website plus, I gave Joshua some Phoenix egg rolls ‘chanced’ upon in that way which some would call synchronicity and others quantum physics, with a message to congratulate and assure them they had already risen by planting the seeds of unconditional love and sparking compassion throughout Hong Kong and around the world.”
On Facebook was the posting by Lian-Hee Wee: “Dear students, I shall be at Admiralty tomorrow (Sat, Oct 4) from around 2pm till at least 5pm. I shall post my exact location when I find a suitable spot. If you need academic help, please come. Or just come and say hello anyway.”
These kindly expressions are a reflection of a lot of what is happening over these days of the protests but there is another side to affairs.
Steve Vickers and Associates (SVA) sends subscribers a ‘tickler’ newsletter letting those needing risk assessment know this service is locally available and from this source we learn:
Hong Kong Occupy Central – Threat Assessment
Consistent with previous SVA assessments, civilian on civilian clashes eventually occurred in Admiralty on Monday the 13th of October.
Against a backdrop of waning public support and growing discontent with the daily disruption caused by road blockages, the Occupy Central protestors were attacked at both ends of their Queensway, Hong Kong barricades by various Anti-Occupy Central groups and Triad elements.
Masked Triad members were reported to be present within the group, which included truck and taxi drivers, along with numbers of pro-mainland supporters, known as the “blue ribbons”. The Hong Kong Police deployed resources swiftly to both locations and were able to hold the line.
That said, late in the afternoon on 13 October, there were some reports of Anti-Occupy Central groups beginning to gather around the protest site in Mongkok. Kowloon West presents special challenges given the heavy Triad influence in this area and the congested nature of the streets.
The lack of notable physical violence or property damage aside, SVA, consistent with our earlier assessments, believes that the longer that Occupy Central movement continues to disrupt daily life in Hong Kong, the more likely that civilian on civilian clashes will occur and with that, the probability that decisive force will be required by the Police to end the occupation.
Even when a way is found to disengage and to draw the Occupy Central exercise to a close, there will be many lingering after effects. Along these lines we note that groups such as the Heung Yee Kuk, who pledged to “defend” their own areas and to support the Government; “support” that will come at a political price in the future. We also note the increasing reports of Triad involvement, both in support of Anti-Occupy groups and as suspected agitators in Kowloon West.
A tacit acceptance of overt Triad activity; this under the banner of “blue ribbons” or United Front organisations may perhaps help the HK/mainland government(s) meet their short term objectives. However the blatant Triad involvement will cause longer term difficulties in Policing Hong Kong, post Occupy Central. This situation is exacerbated by perceived inaction by government against senior level Triad office-bearers; this since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong – with some high profile Triad members even acquiring mainland recognition and titles.
Possible Risk Scenarios
From a public order standpoint, the single biggest risk is that Occupy Central and Anti-Occupy Central supporters and agitators will further clash over the coming days.
As the Anti-Occupy groups become more emboldened and stronger and better organised, there is a growing risk of clashes between the two groups turning truly violent and becoming difficult for the Police to control without the use of force.
Also as Occupy Central supporters continue to re-enforce their street positions and barriers the probabilities increase that, failing an early and highly unlikely political solution, that the situation will require concentrated and forceful Police action to reopen the city and finally disperse the protesters.
As in past assessments, we believe that the Police will gain the upper hand and will deflate the situation; however, at the political level there is still much room for the Hong Kong Government to mishandle the final stages of Occupy Central; this especially given the growing complexities faced by Police as the Anti-Occupy Central movements become more involved.
As to the final – worst-case – scenario, whilst several pro-Beijing politicians had toyed with the idea of mainland Chinese intervention, we have constantly maintained that such a scenario is most unlikely, although if it actually came to pass this would present a major threat to business and to Hong Kong’s autonomy and reputation.
*
New Zealand artist Vonnie Boston brought together a selection of her illustrations in a large book format under the title of: The Pike Miners – their eternal essence. Subtitled – Souls. Email: bosvb@yahoo.com
***
SVA (www.stevevickersassociates.com) is a specialist risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. The firm serves financial institutions, private equity funds, corporations, high net-worth individuals and insurance companies and underwriters around the world.
