When Barack Obama ran for president of the United States sixteen years ago, he snipped at his staff that they were pretending that he was not black. Of course this is an issue, he apparently said.
Sixteen years later, the first African American woman is running for president and, of course, this is an issue.
A Republican pollster from the Trafalgar Group famously said: People lie to their spouse, to their accountant and to their doctor. Why would they tell in all honesty to a stranger over the phone who they are going to vote for?
For several election cycles in a row, polls in the U.S. have been skewed, largely because the vote for Trump was underestimated. People didn’t want to admit that they are indeed voting for a guy who, in the media, is branded as a sexist and a racist.
For much of this year, I have been suspecting that Trump was polling so well because the focus was on incumbent Joe Biden and, because pollsters have finally stopped to underestimate Trump. Now with Kamala Harris in the picture, we have a new challenge. With the current media hype about her, are voters really willing to admit that they are not voting for the first African American woman for president?
Some of the recent published polling showed numbers for Harris among white voters that even made Democratic pundits suspicious.
I’m not saying that she can’t win. I actually tend to think that she’s the slight favorite at the time. But as for her getting 42% of the white vote, I believe it when I see it in November.
You can watch my latest video on the topic by clicking here.
Louis Perron, PhD, is a political scientist, consultant, and TEDx speaker based in Switzerland. He’s the author of the new book “Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections.”
