A new study shows methane (CH4) emissions behaving like a sprinter on speed, setting decadal records. This is bad news. It’s 80 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat.
“Global emissions of methane, a powerful planet-heating gas, are ‘rising rapidly’ at the fastest rate in decades, requiring immediate action to help avert a dangerous escalation in the climate crisis, a new study has warned.” (Source: Global Methane Emissions Rising at Fastest Rate in Decades, Scientists Warn, The Guardian, July 30, 2024)
The new study by Drew Shindell, et al, The Methane Imperative, Frontiers in Science, July 29, 2024 discusses the methane issue and steps that must be taken to mitigate methane emissions. These steps are considered critical to meet well-advertised goals to limit global warming, which has not been limited nearly enough to count. On the contrary, it’s getting hotter by the year, every year.
Another new study underscores failures to tackle the methane problem: “New comprehensive aerial measurements show oil and natural gas producers across the U.S. are emitting methane into the atmosphere at over four times the rates estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency for those same areas based on industry-reported data.
The results also show that operators are exceeding their own widely touted emissions goals eightfold.” (Source: New Data Show U.S. Oil & Gas Methane Emissions Over Four Times Higher Than EPA Estimates, Eight Times Greater Than Industry Target, Environmental Defense Fund, July 31, 2024)
“Regardless of the reasons, the emission rates are way too high. New, long-anticipated EPA rules finalized earlier this year by the Biden-Harris administration that leverage widely available, cost-effective solutions, along with methane reduction incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act, are vital to bringing the numbers down. It is essential that states and EPA move forward with swiftly implementing these protective standards,” Ibid.
Trump has publicly stated he will destroy Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and let producers off the hook and institute policies that increase greenhouse gases. In that regard, according to Bloomberg News: “The White House’s policies have fueled plans for more than $200 billion in cleantech manufacturing investments mostly (ed. $161B) in districts with Republican lawmakers opposed (ed. all of them opposed it) to the agenda.” (Bloomberg News d/d June 20, 2024)
The past two years of heat on top of more record-setting heat is a sure sign of failure to control human-generated greenhouse gases like CH4, but more troubling yet, slowly but steadily self-reinforcing permafrost melt as well as glacial melt contribute to increasing levels of CH4 as if on automatic pilot, feeding on global warming it creates, releasing CH4. This is real danger, and it’s flashing red. Controlling CH4 emissions wherever humanly possible cannot be done soon enough. Global warming is not waiting around.
This could get real messy real soon unless the brakes are put on emissions. With global news already covering widespread overheating of the planet, which is caused by excessive levels of greenhouse gases, new news that methane (CH4) has gone ballistic should make bolder headlines because, more insidiously than CO2, it turns up the thermostat, causing all kinds of problems for human survival. Already, several
regions of the world were/are on the ropes, feeling dangerous levels of heat. “The human body can only accommodate temperatures above 95 degrees with high humidity for short periods of time.” (Source: Americares)
Humans lose 80% of body heat through sweating. When both humidity and heat combined are too high, sweating becomes harder and harder until impossible to shed heat. According to a study at Arizona State University, a healthy young adult could die after six hours of 92°F with 50% humidity. (Source: Hottest Survivable Temperatures Are Lower Than Expected, Scientific American, December 12, 2023)
According to Global Methane Tracker 2024: “The concentration of methane in the atmosphere is now over two-and-a-half times greater than the pre-industrial levels. The increase has accelerated in recent years and preliminary data indicates that there was another significant annual increase in 2023.”
Earth System Research Laboratories (as of July 5, 2024)
Global CH4 Monthly Means:
March 2024 1930.75 ppb
March 1983 1645.00 ppb (when official measurements started)
The Shindell study clearly points to fossil fuels, primarily oil and gas production, and increased decomposition rates from wetlands because of global warming, which, of course, accelerates excessive levels of CH4, meaning, it’s self-reinforcing. This is evident across the vastness of Arctic permafrost covering roughly 20% of the Northern Hemisphere. It’s a time bomb that’s already ticking. And it is enormous.
Hopefully, nations of the world hurry mitigation measures because the methane curse is not just oil and gas production and wetlands in specific easily accessed regions. Several studies have exposed threats heretofore ignored where CH4 is cocked and loaded and ready to accelerate. e.g., (1) a recent study found migrating methane gas under the base of permafrost in Svalbard, Norway which has “significant implications for climate change.” (2) Arctic News d/d January 14, 2024 reported the impact of rising Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures “… threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and lead to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrate.”
According to some studies, triggering a climate catastrophe that slams humanity down onto the mat is within the range of possibilities: “Methane bombs – gas fields where leakage alone from the full exploitation of the resources would result in emissions equivalent to at least a billion tonnes of CO2 – represent a huge threat to the climate and have the potential to release methane levels equivalent to three decades of all US greenhouse gas emissions, a new investigation by The Guardian has revealed.” (Source:
Methane Bombs’ Release 30 Years Equivalent of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Risk Triggering Climate Catastrophe, Earth.org, March 8, 2023)
Underscoring these recent studies is a haunting incomprehensible undertone of human failure to address the risks of human extinction. Once the signs become more apparent, it’ll be too late. In fact, there are some rumblings that “too late” may be right around the corner, but that’s too pessimistic, or is it? Regardless, the offset to pessimism about climate change is nobody really knows for sure when what will happen, but trends tell a story, such as radical changes in ecosystems like tens of thousands of thermokarst lakes emitting CH4 suddenly appearing in Arctic permafrost regions of Siberia and Alaska as undeniably factual and impossible to accurately measure but rapidly surfacing methane
bubbles up and away into the atmosphere, defining a cloudy uncertain future.
