The Iranian nuclear deal doesn’t mean a calm of the conflicts in the Middle East. Tehran’s opponents in the region will curb the expansion of Iranian influence enforced by the chance of lifting the sanctions from the Islamic Republic. This will not immediately result in all-out warfare in the region, but it most likely will entail a growth of violence in Middle Eastern battle-grounds of Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other opponents of Iran are well experienced in the use of proxy forces including a diverse range of terrorist organizations and paramilitary groups. Thus, the situation in the region will likely worsen on multiple fault lines: Sunni versus Shiite, a war on terrorist groups as ISIL and ethnic conflicts among Turks, Iranians, Arabs, Kurds, and other groups.
The rise of the violence will come amid the bureaucratic chaos. Despite the fact that the Iran Nuclear deal has passed the U.N. Security Council, it will be extremely difficult for both houses of the U.S. Congress to find the two-thirds votes necessary to prevent the lifting of certain U.S. sanctions levied against the Islamic Republic. Normalization with the US isn’t on the horizon for the near future while US allies in the region have already started to act as Iran has already come to it’s full economic power and is threatening them with an invasion. Saudi Arabia’s ground operation in Yemen and Turkey’s attempts to establish a zone of military occupation in northern Syria clearly mark this approach. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the heavyweights in the balance of power the United States seeks to create in the Middle East. The most vociferous critic of the Iran nuclear deal has been Israel. The Iran deal is obviously not in Israel’s interests and marks an evolution in the relationship between Israel and the United States. Israel represents the United States’ insurance policy for the game it is playing. If the US decides, Israel may be forced to back US-provoked conflicts in the coming years. Also, it is important not to shrug off Qatar, which was the one of primary powers that helped the US create ISIL.
Turkey is the largest economy in the Middle East and is strategically situated at the confluence of the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, on the Sea of Marmara. Like the United States, Turkey has some conflicting interests with Iran. For one, Turkey depends on Iranian oil, which in 2014, constituted up 26 percent of Turkey’s oil imports. Moreover, Turkey is one of the biggest markets for Iranian natural gas. However, Turkey is a Sunni power rival to the Shiite Iran, and of the three Sunni heavyweights. It is also the most capable and equipped to oppose Iran’s objectives. Turkey claims the Middle East as its sphere of influence and will not look kindly on any country encroaching on its ambitions. Besides the economic links between the two powers, Tehran and Ankara have some strategic disagreements. For example, Turkey roughly opposes the rise of an independent Kurdish state as result of the Syrian and the Iraqi conflict. Almost 15 percent of Turkey’s population is Kurdish, and Ankara has had to contend with a Kurdish insurgency since 1984. Moreover, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said his country will never allow the establishment of a Kurdish independent state. Meanwhile, Tehran has at times offered military support to Kurds fending off the Islamic State in Iraq. Iran also has a Kurdish population of its own, estimated at a minimum of 5.5 million Kurds. Kurdistan is the natural battleground between Turkey and Iran, both sides will actively move on this ground. Turkey’s relationship with the Islamic State is an another problem. Turkey has supported a militant group providing logistical support and buying ISIL’s oil for a long time. However, the Islamic State could become a domestic threat for Turkey even in the case of changing Turkey’s public rhetoric to Islamic State criticism. Turkey has been adamant about seeing the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, actively supplying and training militants to fight Damascus. At the moment, Turkey is considering moving its military into northern Syria to create a buffer zone that would prevent Syrian Kurdish expansion, enabling Ankara-backed militants, including ISIL to focus their resources on continuing the assault on the al Assad government.
