Medhaj News Exclusive: BJP plus Sajjad Lone to form the next J&K Government
The final and fifth phase of elections in Jammu & Kashmir concluded on 20th December with voting on 20 seats which fall in the Jammu region.
After analyzing all the five phases of election and the perception of local voters in Jammu, Kashmir and Laddakh, the three regions of the State, Medhaj News brings you the following post-poll prediction:
BY Amaresh Misra, Editor-in-Chief, Medhaj News, with inputs from Medhaj News poll survey team
Here are the results:
J&K total seats: 87
Seat division as per area:
Kashmir Valley: 44
Jammu: 38
Ladakh: 5
Seat prediction:
PDP: 28-32
BJP: 35-40
Congress: 5-7
NC: 4-6
Others: 3-5 seats
Phase-wise Prediction
The first phase of J&K elections was held on 16 seats which include 5 seats in Kashmir, 6 seats in Jammu and 5 seats in Ladakh.
In the first phase Congress is expected to garner 2-3 seats. NC might have to rest content with 1; PDP with 3, CPI-M with 1 and BJP 6-8.
The second phase of elections was held on 18 seats, shared equally by both the regions, Jammu and Kashmir.
In the second phase, NC is expected to net 1-2 seats while Congress is expected to end up with 2 seats. PDP might rake in 5-7; BJP 6-8; Independents and others 3-4, including one seat of Hindwara for Sajjad Lone, the ex-militant standing with tacit BJP support.
In the third phase of polling almost all 16 seats fall in the Kashmir region.
The third phase is being considered as a turning point for PDP. The party is expected to take 12 seats while NC is expected to stop at 2; one might go in favor of Congress and on one, BJP backed Independent stands a good chance of winning.
In the fourth phase, polling was held for 18 seats among which 16 are in Kashmir and 2 in Jammu.
After a close analysis, Medhaj News came to the conclusion that PDP is expected to win 8-10 seats while BJP might get 3 seats, 1 from Habbakadal, Kashmir, and 2 from Jammu; NC is expected to win 1 and Congress 1 seat; while on one there is said to be a close contest.
In the fifth phase, all of 20 seats are in Jammu only. This might prove to be a turning point for the BJP.
This time, BJP has been claiming 44 plus seats in the state. In the last 2009 assembly elections, BJP had managed 14 seats, mostly from Jammu and I from Ladhakh.
BJP’s 44 plus calculation is based on the assumption of winning at least 32-35 in Hindu dominated Jammu (where there are 38 seats) and 2-3 from Muslim dominated Srinagar (out of a total 44 seats). The rest, BJP expects, will come from Independents or breakaway groups.
Polarization is obvious in both Jammu and Kashmir; Congress, despite only a marginal decline in vote percentage, might not get seats. In at least 7 Jammu seats which went to polls on 20th December, the BJP Vs Congress contest is so close that victory will be decided by a small margin.
If BJP manages to sweep all of these 7 seats, and get 19-20 out of 20 in Jammu that went to poll on 20th December, then its tally can touch 38-40. If that happens, and if Sajjad Lone wins and his small party manages to get even 3 seats, BJP has a definite Government formation shot.
Government Formation
So everything depends on whether BJP manages to sweep, to the tune of 98% seats of the 20, on which elections were held on 20th December 2014.
It is possible that BJP can snatch an almost impossible sounding victory, in the sense of Government formation, in J&K. For Modi, this would mean a huge boost; he can go to town, even silence his detractors in the RSS and ultra `Hindu-lobby’ which has not approved of Sajjad Lone calling the PM, his elder brother.
Contrary to perceptions, a large section of the RSS is with Modi’s line on Sajjad Lone. Guess who arranged the meeting between Modi and Sajjad Lone?
None other than Ram Madhav, the leader of a major RSS faction—Ram Madhav it seems has been camping in J&K for over a month now. He did not go much to Jammu, BJP’s natural base. Instead, there are reports that he stayed put in the valley.
Ram Madhav’s prolonged presence in the valley shows that even Mohan Bhagwat is serious about forming a BJP Government in J&K. RSS hopes to kill several birds with this one stone of victory in Muslim dominated, separatist oriented J&K—if BJP is able to form a Government here, then all debates about Muslims being against BJP will come to an end, at least for the time being. BJP-RSS will proclaim loudly that even Kashmir has given them the mandate!
So results of J&K will entail another paradigm shift, in the ongoing process of change initiated on 16th May, 2014.
It is quite possible that BJP props up Sajjad Lone as the CM candidate with outside or even direct support!
Reports of a possible, post-poll PDP-BJP tie-up are also making the rounds; but that perhaps, is the last chance BJP will take, though PDP seems quite open to the idea. PDP and BJP are in the race of emerging as the single largest party; normally, two such formations do not have a tie-up. But then, one can’t say anything for sure in J&K.
Conditions in Kashmir, disillusionment with NC and a wary attitude towards Congress have helped the BJP.
Omar Abdullah is actually fighting to save his seat—such is the NC condition.
Partly due to its centrist limitations, and partly due to Modi’s deliberate attempt not to force the article 370 issue or polarize voters beyond a point, coupled with his appeal to oust corrupt forces who have eaten a lion’s share of funds that go to Kashmir, and his invoking developmental issues, the PDP too has failed to polarize totally, the Muslim vote.
In a review conducted by Medhaj News, more than 60% Muslims in the valley said that though they might not vote for the BJP, they are happy with Modi’s assurance that the flood relief money will come straight to their accounts.
Congress-PDP pact?
Even with average performances, PDP and Congress can try form a Government if BJP gets less than 35 and is left without allies; but mutual suspicions, desire of Rahul Gandhi to chart an Independent path for Congress away from coalitions, plus social dynamics of J&K, prevent such a possibility.
The Congress too wants the decline of regional parties in the long run. It might very well decide to sit in the opposition rather than see itself as a junior party supporting a PDP CM.
Identity Politics
There are signs that identity politics is breaking down in Kashmir. It is another matter that a right wing, rather than a classic secular-centrist or Left, force, is benefitting from this change.
Centrist politics is on the decline.
In another opinion poll, Medhaj News discovered that at least 25-30% of poor, migrant or OBC Muslims like Gujars, Bakarvalas, Gurezs—traditional NC voters—are leaning towards the BJP and might vote for the party.
Money too will play a big role.
PDP has emerged mainly as a party of middle class Muslims. First signs of a class division in a concrete political arena—assembly elections—are visible in J&K!
Whichever party benefits for the time being, in the long run, the 2014 elections are sure to prove a turning point for Kashmiri politics in general—a move away from identity-insurgency politics to a more bread and butter oriented one.
Amaresh Misra, Editor-in-Chief, Medhaj News, with inputs from Medhaj News poll survey team
